Possibly.

A ''double dissolution'' election can be caused is when the same parliamentary bill is rejected by the senate twice in a three month period. This action is a trigger that allows the PM to approach the Governor General and ask him to dissolve both houses of parliament and call an election, this is different to a normal election because all member of the senate are up for office rather than half the members like in a normal election.

No

Probably

double dissolution - senate not voting legislation through, so both houses are dissolved, and the election is caleld ahead of alloted time.

I don't think it will happen because the Libs know they would be massacared if an early election was called.

hmmm... i was a little late on my distracted reply.

I was listening to 702 the other day and they were saying that Labor don't want a double dissolution as it would probably result in more independents/minor parties holding the balance of power in the senate. Something to do with senators only needing half the number of votes to be elected because there were twice as many of them standing for election. I didn't really understand that bit.

In normal elections, only half of the Senators get re-elected every election and it's usually about 6 months afterwards that the new Senators replace the old. In a double dissolution, all the Senators have to get re-elected, and if they do so, they're in parliament immediately. Double dissolution elections only happen if the government can't pass important legislation.

Labor's problem at the moment is that, because half the Senators were elected in 2004, half the Senators are from the Coalition - thus getting things like climate change legislation passed is a nightmare - they have to hope the Coalition likes the legislation, or try and get Steve Fielding and Bob Brown to agree on something. A double dissolution election is one way of getting a better balance in parliament. But then, they'll probably get a better balance anyway, so why bother?

The politics of it right now is that the Coalition is tearing itself apart over climate change. It's in Labor's best interests, electorally, to continue it being that way. Rather than to, you know, actually do something useful. So, to call a double dissolution to get something useful done isn't in their interest, because it'll give the Coalition something solid (and particularly imperfect) to carp at.

What Goldfoot mentions is Labor's worst nightmare: Steve Fielding getting re-elected. Originally he was elected because he basically got all of Labor's Victorian preferences, not because of him actually having that many votes of his own.

In a double dissolution election, 12 senators get elected, rather than 6. This means that, instead of ~16% of the vote, you need ~8% of the vote. Fielding is much more likely to get 8% of the vote rather than 16%. As a result, major party preferences become less powerful, and they get less influence on who gets elected (through their preferences based on extra votes).

12 senators get elected in every state, even.

Most psephologists reckon the Greens will pick up a fair whack of the senate seats and leave Fielding out in the cold.

Thought I'd revive the thread now it's actually 2010.

Has Abbott's rise to the leadership job ensured a Liberal victory? He's sure appealing to the base.

I don't think his gaffes are looked upon badly by the elctorate. They like their conservatives, conservative, unlike Turnbull who's too much of a wet to appeal to the ''string 'em up by the ankles'' mob.

I don't think Rudd's on the nose either. He's performed quite well, although the ALP is quite rightly worried that NSW will wreck everything for the party.

although the ALP is quite rightly worried that NSW will wreck everything for the party.

Same could be said for Victoria...

I can't see the ALP losing Victoria at the next election. The margin will narrow, but the government's not on the nose, unlike the stinking cesspool that is the NSW ALP.

The margin will narrow, but the government's not on the nose, unlike the stinking cesspool that is the NSW ALP.

Ha! Possibly not, but let's not go counting chickens...

http://www.theage.com.au/national/gillard-readies-for-poll-as-new-boatload-arrives-20100703-zv2l.html

Looks like this election is going to be another lets see who can be the toughest on refugees and pick up votes of the lowest common denominator like the 2001 election. Pretty disgraceful on both ALP and Libs behalf.

Whats everyones bets on when the election will be called? There was alot of murmors that it would be called on friday but that didn't eventuate.

Just about to be called?

well... right now she's giving a press conference (rather than jetting off to Yarralumla).

it's true though, Quentin Bryce has reduced her OS trip from 3 weeks to a few days (Saturday to Wednesday) so she definitely feels an election call is imminent

OK - so speculation rife at a 28th August election.

I'm going to be overseas, and am mega-pissed off.

I love a good election night party.

Gillard about to knock on the GG's door...

Press conference to be called any minute apparently!

Centrebet paying $1:22 for an ALP win, $4:10 for the Libs.

I guess he just want to eat more sausages.

latest counts have labor at 73 and libs at 70, with three in doubt, one of which will probably go liberal, one which will probably go independent, and one which is too close to call. might end up 73 all.

From South Australia's Labor Premier, Mike Rann,, about minority government:

In 2002 I entered into an agreement with Peter Lewis, an Independent who had been a Liberal for decades, which secured us Government... Lewis became Speaker.

We then negotiated with Rory McEwen, an Independent former Liberal to join our Cabinet... Later we negotiated with National Party Leader Karlene Maywald to join our Cabinet. Both Rory and Karlene were full Cabinet Ministers...

In a first we signed a contract with each minister that enabled them to vote against the govt on legislation they could not support... These Ministers pledged to support us in no confidence motions. They guaranteed security for us as a stable minority govt...

It worked. A very strong, stable govt and we kept independents on for another 4 years even though we had a record majority... They made us a better govt and brought a different culture and regional and rural perspective to cabinet room    

trying that quote again:

In 2002 I entered into an agreement with Peter Lewis, an Independent who had been a Liberal for decades, which secured us Government... Lewis became Speaker.

We then negotiated with Rory McEwen, an Independent former Liberal to join our Cabinet... Later we negotiated with National Party Leader Karlene Maywald to join our Cabinet. Both Rory and Karlene were full Cabinet Ministers...

In a first we signed a contract with each minister that enabled them to vote against the govt on legislation they could not support... These Ministers pledged to support us in no confidence motions. They guaranteed security for us as a stable minority govt...

It worked. A very strong, stable govt and we kept independents on for another 4 years even though we had a record majority... They made us a better govt and brought a different culture and regional and rural perspective to cabinet room

i give up.

Denison didn't go to Wilkie after all then?

How interesting.

I find this all so fascinating. 3-ex National Party Independents and a Greens MP along with an ex-Liberal Party whistleblower (potentially) holding the balance of power. Then to top it off having to get legislation through 9 Greens in the Senate. Whoever forms Government is going to have a bloody tough time of it.

Barrie Cassidy (bless him) made a good point on ABC News 24 - this election has shown to the Politicians never to serve us up this tripe again.

And thankfully Xenophon is still there.

along with an ex-Liberal Party whistleblower (potentially)

as Nyx said above, the AEC have called Denison for Labor. So it's currently Labor 73, Libs 72. Only Hasluck in WA left to call which the Liberals are currently in the lead. Postals usually favour the incumbent though.

If Labor end up with 74, even if the independant block side with the coalition it ends up 75 each. That would be fun.

William Hung and the hung jury.

MOCK TRIAL!

as Nyx said above, the AEC have called Denison for Labor. So it's currently Labor 73, Libs 72. Only Hasluck in WA left to call which the Liberals are currently in the lead. Postals usually favour the incumbent though.

yeah, did they say down by 400 at the start of the day? i think if it was locked at 75 all then we'd be going back to the polls.

73/72... only hasluck to go.

(which looks like going liberal)

Two Candidate Preferred
Polling Places Returned: 41 of 41 Turnout: 74.63%

WYATT, Ken Liberal 33,353 +1.12
JACKSON, Sharryn Australian Labor Party 32,990 -1.12

So, Labor & LNP 73 each, 1 Green and 3 Independents.

I'm calling it for Labor at this stage. I don't think the Coalition have a hope of forming a minority government.

hasluck still in doubt though... could go either way, but they're tipping liberal.

I am liking the cut of Katter's jib.

''Many times I've gone to bed as a cockle doodle doo and woke up the next morning as a feather duster - this might be one of those times.'' - Independent Queensland MP Bob Katter

!!!!!!!! KRAZY KATTER KUNTRY YEEEEEEHHHHAAAAAAAAArrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr !!!!!!!!!!!! Hooray for kuntry australia. Hi sydney feedlot ha

I'm just looking for info on that Grayndler recount that was mentioned and going through the stats - It appears there was a family first candidate who didn't get one vote in the whole electorate! Haha.

Mr Windsor said he got rid of ''two cancers'' when he gave up smoking and left the Nationals in the 1980s.

i'm warming to tony.